Weather Factors Can Help Predict Dengue Outbreaks

Dengue is widespread all through the tropics, with native variations in danger, influenced by local weather parameters in addition to social and environmental components, based on the WHO. It is unfold to people by way of the chew of contaminated feminine mosquitoes of the


The incidence of dengue internationally has considerably elevated with almost 50 per cent of the worldwide inhabitants at present susceptible to the illness and an estimated 100 to 400 million infections annually.says the WHO


Do Weather Factors Affect Mosquito-borne Diseases?

While ocean warming and temperature can predict the exercise of aedes Mosquitoes with a lead time of 1 to 6 months, the quantity of rainfall can challenge aedes mosquito prevalence in the identical month, says the research printed July in The Lancet Planetary Health, Dengue fever usually happens after wet climate when circumstances are optimum for the breeding of mosquitoes. Hotter temperatures had been related to will increase in mosquitoes one to 2 months later. The hotter ocean temperatures predicted will increase in mosquitoes with a five- to six-month delay, the research discovered.

,Knowing the habits and pure habitat of mosquitoes and their affiliation with local weather components is vital for prediction [of Aedes mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue]and in addition for planning efficient mosquito management interventions,” Prasad Liyanage, lead author of the study, said. SciDev.Net,

“Climate components have the potential to function predictors of mosquito exercise at completely different instances and will allow us to quantify the chance and implement efficient mosquito management interventions earlier than a dengue epidemic emerges,” said Liyanage, an affiliate of the Sri Lanka Ministry of Health and the Umea University, Sweden.

Since there is no effective dengue vaccine available, controlling mosquito populations is considered the most effective strategy to prevent the virus spreading, researchers say.

The study evaluated three weather variables between 2010 and 2018: temperature, rainfall and ocean warming. Ocean warming was assessed through a technical measure called Oceanic Nio Index which determines whether Pacific Ocean waters are warmer or cooler than average.

During the eight-year period, the researchers noted three events where unusually warm ocean temperatures occurred. They also compared climate variables with surveillance data relating to Aedes mosquitoes.

Yesim Tozan, a co-author of the study and Assistant Professor of global health at the US-based NYU School of Global Public Health, says health authorities should promote and invest in Aedes mosquito surveillance to control aedes-borne diseases.

“Climate providers and public well being ought to work collectively to mitigate the potential enhance within the danger of mosquito-borne ailments, which is predicted to happen underneath varied local weather change eventualities,” she said SciDev.Net,

According to Tozan, dengue transmission is expected to intensify due to climate change, “If we will use local weather and climate information to foretell seasonal patterns of mosquitoes, this well timed info would permit public well being authorities to proactively handle mosquito management operations,” she adds.

Thekkekara Jacob John, former Professor of Clinical Virology at the Christian Medical College, Vellore, India, says: “This research provides particular particulars to our widespread information that aedes breeding is modulated by local weather rainfall and temperature, The advantages of assortment and evaluation of already accessible information for understanding the correlation between particular climatic components and growing breeding are nicely illustrated.”


1. Effect of El Nio-Southern Oscillation and native climate on Aedes vector exercise from 2010 to 2018 in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a two-stage hierarchical evaluation – ( /PIIS2542-5196(22)00143-7/fulltext)

Source: Newswise

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