The Russian Strategy Designed To Overwhelm Ukraine Forces

Ukraine accused Russia of a full-scale invasion.

Russia’s army strike in opposition to its neighbor Ukraine is designed to say air superiority earlier than floor troops which have massed on the nation’s borders encircle Ukrainian forces from the north and south, consultants advised AFP.

The assaultafter greater than 150,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders in latest weeks, has been accompanied by a large wave of air and missile strikes, whereas floor troops push on a number of fronts together with in the direction of the capital Kyiv.

The image is of “a rapid Russian military campaign that seeks to rapidly dislocate, encircle and destroy Ukrainian forces in a multi-pronged assault”, mentioned Franz-Stefan Gady, a analysis fellow on the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

“Russia… will try to see a rapid conclusion of this conflict,” he added.

A collection of explosions have been heard within the capital, with Ukraine saying Russian forces had captured an airbase on Kyiv’s outskirts whereas helicopters have been seen flying in from the north.

Attackers “look like they’re on the way” in the direction of Kyiv from Belarus, together with through pontoon bridges constructed to the north of the exclusion zone across the former Chernobyl nuclear energy plant, mentioned Francois Heisbourg of the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) ).

The Russian armed forces — vastly superior in numbers of armored autos and particularly air energy — mentioned they’d destroyed 74 Ukrainian army installations together with 11 airbases and anti-aircraft programs.

Russian strikes additionally hit Kramatorsk, web site of the Ukrainian army headquarters for the area, Kharkiv, the nation’s second-largest metropolis close to the frontier, Black Sea port Odessa and Mariupol, the town closest to the preliminary frontline.

Air superiority

Thursday’s “Russian textbook” assault started with “a phase of preparing the battlefield… known as ‘shaping'”, a senior French army officer mentioned on situation of anonymity.

By “neutralizing all anti-air defenses and airbases, eliminating electronic warfare equipment… they’re in the process of seizing air superiority before ground manoeuvres,” the officer added.

“With Russia in total control of the skies, the Ukrainians are in an impossible military situation,” added Heisbourg.

Along with air superiority, Moscow may very well be attempting to paralyse its neighbour’s digital communications, with a number of web sites of banks and ministries taken offline by so-called distributed denial of service (DDOS) assaults from Wednesday afternoon.

Kyiv has blamed Russian operatives for the cyberattacks, which Moscow has denied.

The senior French officer mentioned that when air superiority was assured, “in the coming hours we’ll see bridgeheads being taken, especially with airborne troops, and large-scale manoeuvres coming from Belarus, Crimea and the east.”

Russia is “on course to occupy all of Ukraine”, he predicted.

And with such a big share of his forces dedicated, President Vladimir Putin’s “calculus is that NATO is not going to intervene”, Gady mentioned.

“If he had really feared an attack on Russian territory by NATO or by any other Western country, he would not have done this.”


Sunny climate and agency, dry floor current the right circumstances for each Russian plane and armored autos to function.

Multiple floor offensives, together with from Belarus to the north and Crimea to the south, will doubtless goal to encircle the majority of Ukrainian forces, which had been concentrated alongside the prevailing “line of contact” with two breakaway pro-Russian republics within the Donbas area. .

“It’s like a 21st-century version of the major European wars of the 20th century,” particularly World War II, Heisbourg mentioned.

Russian troops “will attack the Ukrainian troops in their trenches from the rear, who will have no other option but to give up after selling their lives dearly”, Heisbourg added.

But the attacking forces will likely be leery of partaking in avenue battles in Ukraine’s cities.

“These types of military operations are extremely costly, they’re man-intensive and also can be bloody,” mentioned Gady.

“If they do want to force the Ukrainian government into submission, I think they might actually lay siege to some of the cities… to force a political solution,” he added.

As for the Ukrainians, they might drag out the battle “if they are able to re-establish interior defensive lines and if they maintain their fighting morale,” Gady mentioned.

“Having said that, the chances for this to happen… at this moment are fairly small.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV workers and is printed from a syndicated feed.)

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