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WHO's methodology for estimating Covid-19 deaths unscientific: Govt

New Delhi: The mathematical modeling method adopted by the WHO to undertaking extra mortality estimates associated to Covid-19 suffers from inaccurate assumptions and is unscientific and India had registered its robust objection to this technique, the federal government knowledgeable Parliament on Tuesday.

India had objected to the ‘one measurement matches all’ method adopted by the WHO because it is likely to be true for smaller international locations however can’t be utilized to an enormous and various nation like India which had different case trajectory throughout a number of states and at totally different intervals in the course of the pandemic, Minister of State for Health Bharati Pravin Pawar mentioned in a written reply.

She was responding to a query on the World Health Organization (WHO) stating that the quantity of people that died of Covid-19 in India is 47 lakh.

As on July 16, 2022, as reported by states and UTs, 5,25,660 deaths as a consequence of Covid-19 have been reported within the nation, the reply mentioned quoting India’s official information.

The WHO, based mostly on a mathematical modeling train, has, nonetheless, projected an estimate of about 47 lakh extra deaths in India related instantly or not directly with the Covid-19 pandemic, between January 1 2020 and December 31, 2021. This is primarily an estimate of deaths as a consequence of all causes which incorporates deaths as a consequence of Covid-19 additionally.

“The mathematical modeling based approach by WHO suffered from a number of inconsistencies and erroneous assumptions.

“India had highlighted towards the classification of sure international locations underneath tier-1 whereas that they had displayed information inconsistencies in reporting and inserting India underneath tier 2 whereas India has adopted a sturdy system of information reporting,” Pawar said in the written reply.

The minister stated that WHO was also asked to explain the unscientific approach wherein their projections were based on data from only 17 states and UTs obtained from websites/RTIs taken at varied periods of time and extrapolated to the entire country.

The study did not account for varied Covid-19 test positivity rates across the states and at different periods of time, besides the implications of using different diagnostic methods (RAT/RT-PCR) in different countries, she said.

According to the WHO’s own admission, their modeling exercise suffered from a number of limitations like limited representation and generalization of variable utilized to settings that may be systematically different.

The Central Council of Health and Family Welfarea representative body of health ministers from all states and UTs of India, constituted under Article 263 of the Constitution of India, has passed a unanimously resolution against the WHO’s approach in this regard and authorized the Union Health Minister to convey their collective disappointment to the WHO, she said.

“India had registered a robust objection to the method, methodology and end result of this unscientific modeling method particularly when India had supplied genuine information printed via Civil Registration System by Registrar General of India to WHO.

“India’s approach to Covid-19 management is in line with test-trace-isolate-treat approach along with Covid-19 vaccination and consistent use of mask, hand hygiene, physical distancing and other preventive measures as advocated by the WHO and other global public health organisation,” Pawar added.

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